Phillies vs Nationals, Free MLB Over/Under Pick

Posted 3 months ago by Wager&Review
Category: Free Picks

MLB Monday's...great time to get some baseball action...

We have run today's slate of game through our proprietary MLB betting system. A few games stand out, but we have picked one to be today's Free MLB Pick.

For the Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals (7:05 PM ET) sportsbooks have set the odds as follows:

PHI -137
WAS +120
PHI -1.5 (+145)

The OVER pops off the page when handicapping this matchup. Here are some stats that go into the algorithm that determines this:

  • The Phillies are 4th in the league in runs scored (6.62 per)
  • In On base % (which highly correlates with run totals) they rank 4th (.374%)...
  • This is a huge stat when evaluating over/unders...
  • In terms of defense, they have allowed opponents to score runs...
  • Philly ranks 17th in on-base % allowed (.324)
  • This is Vincent Velasquez's first start of 2019...he a 4.85 ERA last season. Not great. Bodes well for runs scored...
  • The Nationals are playing decent on offense...they rank 10th in on-base % (.340) and 7th in runs per game (5.75 per)
  • Washington is starting Anibel Sanchez today...
  • In his first outing (vs. PHI) he allowed 4 runs in 4 innings pitched...
  • In Sanchez's career vs Philly, he is allowing a whooping 1.47 WHIP. Wow.
  • In 2 recent games vs the Phillies, they posted run totals of 10 and 17...

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Expect a similar result today. The weather is beautiful tonight in Philly and the crowd will be rocking. Expect both starters to give up 3+ runs. Both of these bullpens will need to pitch extended innings and will allow plenty of baseruns (and runs).

Predicted score: WAS 5 - PHI 8

Best Bet: OVER 9

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